‘Business as usual’: What the federal election does to Canberra’s property market

The impending announcement of the federal election, which is earmarked for sometime in May, will do little to hinder Canberra’s booming property market, according to Domain data and industry players.

With prime minister Scott Morrison yet to announce a date for the election, political experts anticipate it will be called as early as Friday for either May 14 or May 21.

But Canberra’s property market will cut through the political noise and trek on as usual, with data showing that a slowdown in the market is unlikely in the lead-up to the day of an election.

Domain data from the past six years – since the 2016 federal election – shows no distinct trend of declines in median property prices or listings, or major changes to auction clearance rates in the months leading up to an election.

“I think, largely, a federal election doesn’t really impact the property market because the market is influenced by so many macroeconomic elements,” said Domain chief of research and economics Nicola Powell.

“It’s not so much the election itself that will affect market sentiment but, more so, the policies that will be introduced which could impact it … and even if we do see a change in government, the policies that could be introduced aren’t going to come into effect immediately.”

Brett Hayman of Hayman Partners noted that the only noticeable change that typically occurs in the lead-up to the election day is the number of properties that go to auction on that weekend.

“From previous experience, people are distracted on election days trying to go to the polls and get their votes in so we’ll most likely see very few properties scheduled for auction on that weekend,” he said.

“We’re working around the potential dates of the federal election for our sale campaigns to avoid it selling on the date we have to vote … but the intensity we’ve felt in the market over the past two years still exists.”

Stephen Thompson of LJ Hooker Manuka said while the election didn’t affect property prices, the length of an election campaign affected buyer and seller sentiment.

“In my 30-odd years in real estate, I’ve been through a number of elections and I find that it has a lot to do with the timeframe of it all, from when they call the election to when the election occurs,” he said.

“The longer the campaign period is, the more uneasy buyers and sellers are and that tends to pull them back from participating.

“This was the case when Malcolm Turnbull called the July 2016 election. There was a long election campaign that went on for months so a lot of people wanted to wait until it was over.”

Malcolm Turnbull undertook a 55-day election campaign, the longest in Australia since the 1960s.

“With Scott Morrison expected to announce an election date for May, that’s only a short period from now until then for anything to really happen in the market,” Mr Thompson added.

“The turnover may slow ever so slightly but, regardless of who gets voted in, it’s business as usual for Canberra property. This is a steady market and, in many ways, a bubble of its own.”