Can we house Canberra’s growing population?

New data has revealed Canberra’s population has increased, but can the capital house our new residents?

Data from the first tranche of the 2021 census, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), has revealed that the number of Canberra’s residents reached 454,499 people, a 14.4 per cent increase from the previous 2016 census.

The increase is the highest of all states and territories in the country, and the total is 21,000 more than the last published estimated resident population, also released by the ABS.

The need for more housing capabilities in the ACT is becoming increasingly important to suit a population that has been consistently growing during this time. 

ACT planning and land management minister Mick Gentleman said Canberra’s “western edge” would be explored for potential housing developments in the coming years. 

The area consists of Belconnen, Molonglo Valley, Weston Creek and Kambah. 

“Our aim is for 70 per cent of new housing to be developed within our existing urban area and 30 per cent on greenfield sites like those along the western edge of Canberra,” Gentleman said.

“Sustainable growth depends on the careful balancing of our need for more homes with environment, heritage, planning, transport and infrastructure considerations.”

Research into the potential of any land will include the air quality, cultural heritage, bushfire risk and ecological and environmental factors of about 9800 hectares. 

Demand for more land and housing has been visible for years, said Master Builders Association of the ACT chief executive Michael Hopkins.

“In every ballot, we see several thousand people applying for less than 100 plots, so [the ACT] really needs to keep on increasing the supply,” he said. 

This comes as 7400 buyers registered for 51 blocks of land in the new suburb of Macnamara, in Ginninderry. In January, about 8700 buyers registered for 71 blocks of land in the first release. 

“If the ACT is not able to keep up and supply new land, I think we will just see more people move to regional parts of NSW, which we are already seeing,” Hopkins said. 

“If we don’t [increase land in Canberra], we will find that the price of land [will] also continue to skyrocket.” 

Master Builders Associations have been long-term advocates for expansion in the capital, believing that “effort, early planning and plans to deliver both physical and social infrastructure” will produce appropriate residential supply in the future. 

“We know that areas like the western edge will take many years in planning to do all the environmental checks, work out master plans, and go through the approval process,” Hopkins said. 

“They need to be working on these programs now so that we will have more residential opportunities around five years into the future.

“[This area] is just one of many that should be looked at, and we would encourage that the government should look widely at more opportunities for new development.”

Real estate agent Josh Wilson of Luton Properties of Weston Creek and Molonglo Valley said he’d seen increased demand in areas currently sitting on the western edge. 

In the past three months, two apartments within the same street in Coombs have become under offer in less than a week of being listed, he said. “To me, I feel like the apartment side of the market is very strong at the moment.” 

As apartments have become more popular, the last year has also seen a growing interest in western suburbs like Coombs, Wright and Denman Prospect, with large numbers of apartments and townhouses on the market.

Investment in supermarkets and children’s play spaces and Wright’s recent suburb record guarantee the popularity of expansion, Wilson added. 

“The past 12 months have really seen increased buyer demand [in the area]” he said. “Denman has always been strong and Coombs has seen significant growth in more recent months. 

“The new developments that are coming to an end will only help grow the popularity of the area further, I think.”