Canberra house prices hit lowest point, with a price rise on the horizon

Canberra house hunters hoping to purchase are in luck, with a new report revealing the city’s housing market has stabilised.

However, experts have warned that house prices will likely rise in line with other capital cities.

The latest Domain House Price Report, released on Thursday, revealed Canberra’s median house price stands at $1,034,057 – unchanged from the previous quarter.

“House prices have finally hit a trough in Canberra,” said Domain chief of research and economics Dr Nicola Powell.

“It actually happened in March but now it’s flatlined. What this means is that sentiment will improve within the property market in Canberra, and stability has returned to the housing market.”

Despite that, house prices in Canberra declined by 11.9 per cent year-on-year. House prices are now down by about $140,000, or 11.9 per cent, from their June 2022 peak. In percentage terms, Canberra has fallen the furthest from its price peak of all the capitals.  

Powell said while the ACT’s housing market hadn’t moved into a “recovery phase”, it would likely follow the property cycles of other capital cities, such as Sydney, where the median house price is $1,538,017, up 5.3 per cent over the quarter and 0.1 per cent year-on-year.

“Sydney is well into a recovery – two-thirds of its way into recovery – and is leading and forging the way for other capital cities,” she said. “Hobart and Canberra were the last two cities where house prices hadn’t yet reached [the deepest point of the] trough at one point, but now Hobart’s house prices have increased and Canberra is the last city to find that price trough.”

The results came as no surprise to Lisa Harper of The Property Collective, who said the market had “held up steadily despite interest rate rises”.

“I think buyers’ mindsets have changed slightly,” she said. “They’re a bit more cautious now and, of course, when it comes to peoples’ financial positions, that’s changed considerably.

“From our point of view, first-home buyers were the hardest to have been hit. They’re looking for houses between $600,000 and $800,000 now, but previously, they were looking at spending about $1 million. Their borrowing capacity has reduced considerably.”

First-home buyer Euan Moyle says buying an apartment as his first property was always the plan.

“It was a stepping-stone into the market, and perhaps down the line, I might upsize to a townhouse or house … but the first one was always going to be a unit for me,” Moyle said.

According to the report, Canberra’s median unit price sits at $545,347, down 0.9 per cent over the quarter and 10.5 per cent year-on-year. For the first time since March 2022, Melbourne has overtaken Canberra as the second most expensive capital in which to purchase a unit.

When Moyle was property-hunting, his price range was between $400,000 and $500,000 and the residence needed to be in the Inner North.

“It was quite a long journey,” he said. “I’d been looking for 18 months, and during that time, interest rates rose quite dramatically [and] the price of the apartments in the areas that I wanted to live in also started to increase.

“I found that even when I did find a property within my price range and it ticked all of the boxes when I’d put in an offer, I’d quickly get trumped at the last second. It’s been extremely challenging … but I feel lucky that my circumstances have been pretty positive.”

With just one more month left of winter, Harper is expecting a busier spring season – the peak selling season.

“The supply is steady at the moment but I do think spring will be crazy,” she said. “A good indicator of this is having conversations with building inspectors, potential sellers and other agents around town, and a lot of them have properties in waiting.”

Powell said the anticipated lift in property prices would be steady.

“What we will see in Canberra is a much more steady rate of growth,” she said. “We’re not suddenly going to move into boom time again, but we’ll see a steady recovery.”