‘Delayed start’: What will Canberra's property market look like in spring?

Canberra’s spring selling season could have a slightly delayed start as lockdown restrictions remain in the capital. 

Canberra’s lockdown 2.0 has resulted in the number of new homes for sale coming to a halt as potential buyers can no longer inspect a property in person and lockdown measures make it difficult to market a home. 

Because of this, Bree Prince of Hive Property said this year’s spring selling season, which is usually the busiest time of the year, could extend into December “to make up for that delayed start”.

“We’ll be busy right to the end of the year … if restrictions continue,” Ms Prince said.

Under revised real estate restrictions, announced on Thursday, photography can now be carried out for existing homes on the market and properties that are vacant and ready to list. Only one person from the agency will be permitted at the property to capture the images necessary and conduct a virtual tour for the purpose of uploading them to the listing or sending it directly to prospective buyers.

According to the latest Domain Buyer Demand Indicator, demand has remained higher in Canberra than in other capital cities.

The Buyer Demand Indicator tracks the weekly demand for houses and units across the country, focuses on behavioural searches, and pinpoints those most likely to purchase a home.

This class of buyers is classified by their actions on Domain, such as shortlisting a property, sending an inquiry, or completing a property inspection, among others.

“Buyer demand in Canberra has continued to increase and reached its peak in July. That illustrates the ongoing underlying demand that people have for purchasing a home in the ACT,” said Domain chief of research and economics Nicola Powell.

“The lower population densities, lifestyle and remote working has drawn and retained residents, as well as Canberra’s job opportunities and higher average wage.”

Dr Powell said that should the lockdown extend beyond September 2, only then will there be “an impact on the property market”.

As soon as restrictions for real estate are lifted, however, the market will rebound as it did in Melbourne, Dr Powell said.

During Melbourne’s lockdown in 2020, new listings and buyer demand plunged. But as the state exited lockdown, the market bounced back, with buyer demand and new listings returning to similar levels seen in the city pre-COVID.

“Once Canberra is out of lockdown and those restrictions, the market will bounce back quickly,” Dr Powell said.

“One thing that can be learnt from other markets is that during this slow period, buyers are doing their research. While there may not be new listings, those buyers are researching house prices and are getting prepared so when the opportunity arises, they’re ready to purchase.”

Sophie Luton of Luton Properties Manuka said a number of sellers decided to stall selling their home, “not by choice, but because they can’t get anything done like building inspections”.

“I have more than a dozen properties waiting to hit the market and a number of buyers waiting to pounce … and I think as we head into spring, we’ll have even more buyers,” she said.

According to Domain data, the number of homes put on the market in the capital had declined by 64.7 per cent between August 16 to 22, from the week prior before lockdown began.

But that hasn’t stopped buyers from adapting to online methods, including live-streamed auctions with remote bidding. In the first two weekends of virtual auctions, the capital recorded an auction clearance rate above 80 per cent.

Ms Prince said buyers have leaned into online auctions and virtual inspections and are “confident enough to purchase sight-unseen”.

“Sellers, on the other hand, are nervous and hesitant with the current restrictions and understandably so,” she said.

“When restrictions ease for real estate, I expect an influx of new properties hitting the market, but there won’t be an oversupply because buyer demand is very strong right now and has been in Canberra all year.”