Your guide to the first auction super Saturday of spring 2018

Auction volumes typically rise in strong markets. This is because positive buyer sentiment makes properties more likely to sell.

So with recent news of falling property prices, falling clearance rates and tightened mortgage lending, it might be difficult to understand why auction listings are indicating a super Saturday this weekend.

Using the latest auction data, here’s a breakdown of the upcoming super Saturday.

How many auctions will there be?

An expected 2330 auctions will be held across the country on Saturday the 22nd.

That is a lot of auctions. It is 45.5 per cent higher than the current average of auctions held on a Saturday in 2018.

In fact, this weekend will see the sixth highest Saturday of the year when ranked by auction listings. So far, the 2018 record is the 24th of March, when 3558 auctions were listed.

But is this a lot of auctions for this time of year? Auction volumes are highly seasonal. Alongside March and May, September has historically been a popular month for hosting auctions.

This may be due to factors such as warmer weather, which encourage people out to auctions.

The second last Saturday in September also sees inflated auction listings, as the AFL Grand Final dominates the following weekend.

As it turns out, despite the strong seasonal inflation, this Saturday will be fairly flat in historical terms. There will be 122 fewer auctions than the corresponding Saturday in 2017 – and 325 fewer than in 2015.

The reason? Auction listing volumes move with market conditions. Figure 2, for example, shows the number of auctions held on a rolling annual basis, alongside rolling annual capital growth rates across capital city dwellings.

The graph suggests that even through auction volumes will see a spike around the warmer months, and even though auction volumes are rising over time, the level of auctions is still informed by whether capital growth rates are moving up or down.

Where are the auctions going to be?

The state with the highest number of auctions is Victoria. An estimated 1121 auctions will take place across the state, or 48.1 per cent of all auctions to be held across the country.

This is unsurprising, given Victoria has accounted for 40 per cent of Australian residential auctions over the past five years.

Of these 1121 auctions, 92 per cent of these will be across greater Melbourne. The inner city will see the most properties go under the hammer (194) followed by the inner east (163).

The next highest state is NSW, which accounts for 35.6 per cent of the auctions to be held this weekend, or 829. The region with the highest number of auctions across NSW will be Sydney’s inner west region (129), followed closely by the City and East (127).

Queensland is the third highest state for auctions, with 150 auctions this Saturday. Of these, 29 auctions will take place in Brisbane’s south.

Suburbs to Watch

Being spoilt for choice with supply on a Super Saturday can put more power in the hands of the buyer. The table below shows the suburbs across Australia where most auctions are expected to take place this Saturday.

Reservoir, in Melbourne’s north, is expected to have the highest number of auctions. Last week, the region saw a clearance rate of 58.9 per cent, down from the 2018 average of 61.9 per cent.

Given the general downward trend in the national auction clearance rate, this Saturday could produce a lot of bargain buys, or a lot of unhappy vendors. Watch this space to see which areas have seller success.  

Eliza Owen is a research analyst at Domain.