How many times have the favourites actually won The Block?

Blockheads Steph and Gian were the red-hot favourites to win this season, and the stars aligned for the couple perfectly, with a record $1.75 million prize, but there’s no such thing as a safe bet on The Block.

Looking back, the judge’s favourites and expert predictions can be at odds with the final results come auction day.

Sure, at the pointy end of each season, there is valuable insight to be gained in the overall scorecard from the judges or the number of clicks a listing has generated online, but there are countless other factors that influence the final sale price.

Buyers can be swayed by the layout of the home, its position on the street (or apartment building) and the size of the block. Outdoor entertainment areas and differing garden layouts can be more or less appealing for investors, families or single buyers.

While owner-occupiers might fall in love with the style and design of a home, investors will be looking at the property as a business transaction. In that case, the depreciation schedule of each property is of huge importance.

The auction order has also proven to play an important role in the results – especially when buyers have an eye on multiple Block properties. In the past, the homes auctioned first and second tend to do best.

Last year was a shock result across the board, with two houses failing to sell at auction and one only fetching $20,000 above its reserve. Winners Omar and Oz were first on the auction chopping block and benefitted from a bidding battle between two high-net-worth buyers. Their result eclipsed that of Tom and Sarah-Jane, who were the firm favourites to win.

Omar and Oz’s $1.6 million prize money surprised many, reminding viewers that the winner of The Block essentially comes down to two things: how much someone wants it and how much money they have to spend.

Naturally, the contestants (and their agents) are crossing their fingers and toes that come auction day, multiple parties are committed and cashed up.

Fan favourites Mitch and Mark took out the crown in 2021 after a rollercoaster season where they copped heavy criticism from the judges. But perhaps the writing was on the wall when their so-called “party house” won the Domain Buyers’ Jury, cementing their house as a market favourite.

In the lead-up to the auction, the experts felt that Kirsty and Jesse’s renovated home in the Hamptons was the most desirable for families, as it was on the largest parcel of land and boasted a resort-esque outdoor area. The couple came in fourth place, taking home a tidy profit in excess of $300,000.

Interestingly, Mitch and Mark were the favourites to win in their previous season in 2019, but underdogs Tess and Luke Struber took out first place. Although it didn’t garner the most listing views online nor win the public vote, the Strubers’ renovation project defied the odds after a barrister bought the property on the advice of his daughter.

The surprise of the 2020 season was not who won but how well everyone did. Jimmy and Tam had racked up the most wins throughout the season, so they were favourites to go all the way. But in a year plagued by lockdowns in Melbourne, any pessimism was well and truly rebuffed when all five houses sold achieved an impressive sale price – ranging from $460,000 above reserve to $966,000 above reserve.

While the underdogs can and do win (like Sara and Hayden did in season 14), the favourites make up most Block winners over the past decade. In season 13, it was no surprise when Josh and Elyse won, as they were rock-solid favourites. In season 12, Will and Karlie were tipped to win, mainly because their apartment was on the ground floor and boasted extra outdoor area, and property experts and the bookies were right to back Dean and Shay on The Blocktagon season in 2015.

Keep casting back, and something that resembles a pattern emerges – which is to say, the hot favourites often win but not always. Sometimes, they come in last place.

No wonder the contestants are nervous ahead of auction day.