Is the Canberra dream coming true?

Canberra is undergoing a shift in the type of buyer active in the real estate market, as more first home buyers step on to the property ladder.

During the first quarter of the 2017-18 fiscal year, the number of first home buyer loans approved jumped to 684, leaping ahead of the 570 entry-level commitments approved in the 2017 June quarter, and the 416 approved in the September quarter of 2016, according to Bureau of Statistics housing finance data.

During the quarter, September provided the greatest boost to entry level buyers, with 237 first home loans approved, increasing 78.2 per cent from the 133 approved in September 2016. This provided the highest monthly activity since October 2009 and the highest number of entry level loans approved for the month of September since 2009. The monthly figure falls significantly below the peak experienced in May 1994, which reached 370 approved loans.

The bolstered entry level activity during 2009 was due to the federal government First Home Owner’s Boost, an initiative to support buyers through the global financial crisis.

First home buyers are carving a greater proportion of housing finance loans. As of September, 20.5 per cent of owner-occupied commitments were first home buyers. This is a dramatic improvement from the 13.6 per cent in September 2016 and the historic low of 8.7 per cent share of owner-occupied loans in September 1991.

The increase to entry level activity is not the only silver lining. Canberra first home buyers are borrowing one of the lowest amounts compared with any other state or territory. South Australia and Tasmania are the only other jurisdictions with a lower loan value, at $269,800 and $243,000, respectively. September 2017 saw the average ACT first home buyers borrow $279,500, a far distance from the peak of $344,800 in December 2015. Comparatively, NSW first home buyers borrowed an average $350,900 and Victorians $324,700 in September 2017.

Entry level loan numbers may be rising but activity from buyers already on the property ladder declined over the quarter. During the September 2017 quarter, 2751 non first home buyer loans were approved (defined as owner-occupied borrowers excluding first home buyers), down from the 2811 approved in the June 2017 quarter although higher than the 2524 approved in the September 2016 quarter.

Let’s add an element of realism. In terms of financial year performance, the 2016-17 fiscal year had the fourth lowest first home buyer participation rate on record, accounting for 14.6 per cent of owner-occupied loans, with entry level buyers elbowed out of the market by investors and upsizers who made the most of the historically low rates on offer.

Under the low rate environment, it is anticipated that entry level buyers would be activated. The fact the ACT produced one of the lowest participation rates on record highlights the struggle to save the lump sum deposit.

Something changed during the first three months of the new fiscal year, pushing the participation rate higher from the low base. Speculation surrounding the next interest rate movement and out-of-cycle rate hikes from the banks could be sparking first home buyers to act.

The new financial year has brought a momentous quarter, with more Canberrans realising the dream of home ownership. Let’s hope the revival continues.