Will Easter slow down the Australian property market? Experts tip it'll be full steam ahead
Easter is traditionally when the property market stops dead, but this year, all signs point to a blockbuster boom that’s likely to skip the holiday and power on all the way through autumn and into winter.
With house and unit prices in the combined capital cities ending 2023 at a record high, according to the latest Domain House Price Report, and activity continuing strongly through February and March, Easter is likely to be just a minor blip on the charts.
“It’s been such a busy March with a lot of properties coming to market and clearing well at auction,” says Ray White Group chief economist Nerida Conisbee.
“The turnover of stock is very healthy and we think April is going to be similarly busy.
“We just won’t see a slowdown at all through autumn, so Easter won’t have a big impact.
“It’s a long weekend when we won’t see any auctions taking place, but then, straight afterwards, it’s going to be business as usual.”
Generally, Easter indicates a significant slowdown in the market, but it’s particularly early this year, with Good Friday arriving on March 29, then the school holidays and, four weeks later, Anzac Day.
As a result, most commentators believe it will do little to dampen a market that’s thrusting ahead, all cylinders firing.
On Ray White figures, for instance, prices have already risen nationally by 2.2 per cent. The company expects them to lift further this year, by over 10 per cent, due to strong demand and more stock coming onto the market, by over 10 per cent for the year.
It’s a prediction echoed by Emily Wallace of Melbourne buyer’s agency Wallace Advocates.
“The timing of Easter this year, after we had the long Labour Day weekend on March 11 in Victoria and Tasmania, does put things out a bit,” she says. “It does disrupt the cycle of auction listings.
“But I think people are coping by putting properties online just before Easter but going for auction afterwards. It means this year, they’ll hit the ground running as soon as Easter finishes.”
She believes many vendors held off on listing in the last two weeks of March, ready to sell in April, and already she’s seeing the number of listings set for next month rising to a healthy high.
Then Wallace anticipates a flurry of sales before Anzac Day on April 25. This year, it falls on a Thursday, so many people might add the Friday to make a long weekend.
“We’re seeing indications of a significant lift in listings for April before Anzac Day,” she says. That third weekend in the month will see a very high number of auctions.
“And we have so many motivated buyers and sellers at the moment, all that activity will continue to bubble away all through June.”
The market recovery is still well underway, with Domain data showing that house prices in Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth are at record highs. Melbourne is expected to complete its price recovery this year.
Unit prices are at record highs in Canberra, Brisbane and Adelaide, while a price recovery for apartments in Sydney and Melbourne is also ongoing.
Domain’s chief of research and economics, Dr Nicola Powell, says there are currently strong listing numbers, high auction volumes, and healthy clearance rates. The placement of Easter probably pulled forward many of the planned sales.
“All the signs are that we’ll have a Super Saturday event before Easter as people are strategically timing their sales to happen before the shutdown period,” she says.
“April is always an interesting month in terms of the dynamics with school holidays and Anzac Day, too.
“We might see a small ‘vacuum effect’ just after Easter as so much of the activity has been pulled forward, but autumn will probably be strong.
“It is the second biggest season of the year. Consumer confidence is strong and sentiment is improving, with a lot of people anticipating a cash-rate reduction later on.”
The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index jumped 6.2 per cent to 86 in February 2024, up from 81 in January, the highest reading in 20 months.
Easing inflation and optimism over interest rates are both thought to be drivers.
In Melbourne, Marshall White director John Bongiorno says buyers are now out in force, taking advantage of the cooler weather.
While volumes are declining in the lead-up to Easter, he thinks that will be a temporary lull.
“Sellers are now pre-planning their sales for May and June to take advantage of the current strong climate,” Bongiorno says.
“The pendulum has swung back a little to favour sellers, and it’s now a normal healthy market, and the momentum will continue throughout autumn.”
On the ground in Sydney, Debbie Donnelley of PPD Real Estate says the market roared out of the blocks at the start of the year.
The agency had a record January and February, with over 150 properties sold, she says, and every indication is that this trend is likely to continue through March and April.
“Sales have been 25 to 30 per cent higher than this time last year, and I think, even despite a short lull at Easter, the market will continue getting better and better afterwards,” Donnelley says. “It won’t slow up.”
Optimism is also high in Canberra. Michael Pead of Belle Property Canberra says people are holding off a little over Easter but will be ready to enter the market again.
“We have a pretty good idea of our pipeline coming up, and there’s quite a bit of choice in stock at different price points across the board,” he says. “I think the activity is going to continue through Easter this year.
“In the past, Easter went very quiet, but now, I think because of the digital platforms, people still look over the long weekend, and often want to see what’s around, both before and after.”
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