The Block 2017: Auction orders could make or break the contestants

Pass the popcorn. It’s crunch time on The Block.

With the grand finale fast approaching, the 10 contestants are preparing for their beloved reno projects to face the property market’s ultimate test — an auction.

But does it matter who goes first or last? Is it better to be auctioned toward the end because buyers are more desperate? Or is it completely irrelevant?

It should be noted that the results will, obviously, depend on a bunch of things including the quality of the houses, the reserve prices and the performance of the auctioneer on the day.

But it does appear the auction order may be a powerful factor too.

Domain Group chief data scientist Nicola Powell will advise the contestants on what they should consider when deciding the order the properties are sold. She said the results of previous Block auctions had thrown up some interesting patterns.

“If you look at what has happened in The Block history, there has been a winner from every single auction position,” Dr Powell said.

Over the past 12 seasons, there have been four winning teams that were first cab off the rank and three winners whose properties were auctioned third.

“But when you actually start to look at those that passed in versus those that really walked away with a hefty amount of money — and I’m talking half a million dollars, some almost $1 million — it highlights the strategic importance of auction orders,” Dr Powell said.

She said the auction order was particularly important if there were stand-out properties that had attracted much more buyer interest than others (let’s not forget Josh and Elyse are hot favourites to win).

“My suggestion is that the strongest home goes first so they have the biggest buyer pool,” she said.

“They create fierce competition and that fierce competition should result in a much higher price, and what that does is set the benchmark for the rest of the homes.

“It’s almost like protecting the home that has the least interest.”

The Fans vs Faves season provides a good example. Brad and Dale bit the bullet and went first, and achieved a great result. It set the pace for the others and all the contestants went on to make more than $500,000 each — even the apartments with weaker interest.

Finder.com.au’s Angus Kidman said patterns within the data needed to be “taken with a grain of salt” because there were many other factors that affected finale results such as market conditions, property features and the depth of the buyers’ pockets.

He also cautioned viewers from looking too closely at previous seasons because the results had spanned over a decade in two different cities and had featured different types of dwellings.

“Usually the property that is the most desirable does get the most money,” Mr Kidman concluded.

Dr Powell said the contestants must make a “selfless decision” in deciding the auction order.

“They need to not think as five separate teams but as one whole team,” she said.

The Block finale airs on Sunday night on Channel Nine.

What we know:

• The five Elsternwick houses will be auctioned off one after another.
• Josh and Elyse’s house at 46A Regent Street has received the most interest from buyers.
• The price guide for Josh and Elyse’s house has been bumped to $2.7 million to $2.97 million.
• The price guide for the remaining four houses remains at $2.4 million to $2.64 million.

What we don’t know (yet):

• The reserve prices of each property
• The order the houses will be auctioned off