The good news for renters and the bad news for mortgagees

Australia’s property values slumped across the finish line into the new year, with Sydney and Melbourne leading the first monthly fall in national values in two years in December.

CoreLogic data shows about $38,000 was added to the median value of a home over the past year, as a 3 per cent fall in Melbourne values was offset by 2.3 per cent growth in Sydney and double-digit gains in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.

But for the month of December, CoreLogic’s Home Value Index ended in negative territory, with national values down 0.1 per cent after peaking in October and holding flat in November.

It was the first national monthly decline in nearly two years, weighed down by falls in Melbourne (down 0.7 per cent), Sydney (down 0.6 per cent), Hobart and Canberra (both down 0.5 per cent).

CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said even in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, values rose at a slower pace in the final months of 2024.

Although these cities recorded double-digit annual growth, he said it was “clear these markets have passed their peak rate of growth”.

Lawless said the decline in home value growth was no surprise as advertised supply levels picked up and buyer demand weakened in the second half of 2024.

However, affordability constraints and reduced borrowing capacity pushed buyer demand towards lower-priced homes. This pushed up home values in the lowest quartile of the market by 9.8 per cent compared to just 1.5 per cent in the highest quartile.

Meanwhile, rental conditions eased, with the national rental index edging up just 0.1 per cent in December and 4.8 per cent over the year.

“This was the smallest December-quarter rise in rents since 2018,” Lawless said, with 0.3 per cent monthly declines in December in Sydney and Melbourne. “Renters are finally getting a bit of relief.”

Lawless said the softer conditions in the housing market at the end of 2024 would probably feed into the start of 2025.

“A combination of less overseas migration, rental affordability challenges and larger households have combined to see rental markets flatten out,” he said. “Rental conditions will take a breather in 2025.”

He predicted a varied year ahead for home values, with growth likely to pick up later in the year.

“The first couple of months of 2025 will be more of what came through December, so falling values in some markets and a loss of momentum in others, but once we start to see interest rates coming down, that should boost confidence and support a pick-up in borrowing capacity,” Lawless said.

The announcement of any major stimulus measures in the lead-up to the federal election could also have an impact.

“All sides of politics are probably going to be bending over backwards to demonstrate a platform aimed at delivering more housing supply,” Lawless said