The long-suffering Qld towns that could be the next property hotspots

Some of Queensland’s worst performing regional towns could be the next property hotspots, according to industry experts.

Recent figures from the Domain State of the Market Report show housing markets in towns such as Townsville, Toowoomba, Gympie and Gladstone continue to struggle, with median house prices having been in freefall in some areas for more than 12 months.

In Townsville, the median house price has declined 4.5 per cent over the June quarter alone and annually by 7.4 per cent; in Toowoomba, prices are down 2.7 per cent over the June quarter, while in Gympie they’re down 1.7 per cent. Gladstone’s median house price has dropped by a whopping 10.6 per cent in the past 12 months.

But according to property market analysts Propertyology, recent economic data obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows a number of these towns are showing signs of turning a corner.

“Changes in job volumes at an individual city level – as opposed to just looking at an unemployment rate in isolation –provides more insight into future performance of property markets,” managing director Simon Pressley says.

“Several Queensland regional cities are producing green shoots. The 12.7 per cent increase in jobs over the last 12 months in Townsville is just the start of what shapes a significant revival.

“Our Townsville Market Outlook report lists a big bunch of reasons for optimism in Australia’s 13th largest city.”

Local Harcourts agent Julie Mahoney admits it’s been a tough few years but believes Townsville’s market has bottomed out.

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“We’re starting to see some investment with infrastructure and projects like the Super Stadium and there’s people spending money on major renovations,” she says.

“I firmly believe the future here is bright – our property is as affordable as it’s ever been. Townsville is more than a hotspot, it’s genuinely a wonderful place to live.”

A solid 12 months has also unfolded in Mackay (7.6 per cent job growth), Beaudesert/Logan (10.2 per cent) and Toowoomba (12.8 per cent).

Mr Pressley says that employment trends are often a precursor to property market trends: “The relationship between [the] percentage of national job creation and percentage of total Australian population for all capital cities is remarkably consistent with how their respective property markets have performed over the last four years.”

The 6.3 per cent employment growth for the year ending May 2017 in Cairns is three times above the national average, Mr Pressley says.

“Cairns is Australia’s gateway to Asia. Demand from international students, domestic and international business conferences, and tourism are through the roof. A Cairns construction boom is about to unfold in the form of new hotels, resorts, and expansions of the Cairns convention centre, sea port and Bruce Highway,” he says.

Domain senior economist Dr Andrew Wilson lists Gympie, Mackay and Bundaberg as towns showing signs of positivity, despite their lacklustre property markets. He also cites their local economies as the key to their growth.

“Bundaberg’s annual growth, as well as the steady rental market, suggests that the region’s prices may rebound this year,” he says.

Bundaberg’s median house price dropped 3.7 per cent over the June quarter but overall, the median house price grew 1.4 per cent year-on-year.

“Gympie remains one of the most affordable regions in Queensland. While housing market activity eased over the June quarter, the region’s solid local economy could return the market to growth in the coming months,” he says.

“Mackay house prices rebounded strongly over the June quarter, suggesting a sustained revival in prospect. With steady rental prices over the past year, the local rental market is also showing clear signs of stabilising,”