Tree-change towns where houses cost almost the same as five years ago

House prices have more than doubled in the last five years in some regional areas, but others have risen less and offer the opportunity to buy for close to 2020 prices.

But experts warn it may not last if the cash rate is cut further this year, enabling buyers to borrow more money.

Lake Wendouree in Ballarat.Paul Jeffers

The suburb with the steadiest growth in regional Victoria over the past five years is Ballarat Central, where the median house price of $580,000 in the March quarter of 2025 was 7.4 per cent higher than in March 2020, Domain figures show.

In regional NSW, the most modest growth was in West Tamworth, up 28.8 per cent to a median house price of $380,000.

In regional Queensland, the median house price in Biggera Waters on the Gold Coast is up 21.2 per cent in five years to $686,000, while in regional Western Australia, Kalgoorlie is 6.3 per cent higher in five years at $335,000.

It’s a contrast to Queensland’s Surfers Paradise where the median house price of $3.2 million has more than doubled, up 146.2 per cent over the same timeframe.

PRD chief economist Diaswati Mardiasmo said buyers could sometimes wonder if modest price growth was a warning sign about a suburb, but this was not always the case.

For example, several postcodes in regional Victoria had comparatively modest growth over five years, but this was a multiplier effect from the Melbourne market where demand has slowed, she said.

“When you hear a place might be steady or might not be growing as much, people go, ‘What’s wrong with it?’” Nothing’s wrong with it. I’ve been to Ballarat, I’ve been to Bendigo, they’re beautiful places,” she said.

She said this could be an opportunity for owner-occupiers to get more value for money, while investors could find regional areas that also have low vacancy rates.

“That is definitely going to give first home buyers or people tree-changing more bang for their buck,” she said.

But she thought now could be an opportune time to buy before potential rate cuts spark competition for properties.

LJ Hooker Tamworth licensee and sales agent Sam Spokes has been fielding enquiries from city buyers, including investors and tree-changers.

“Their money goes a lot further especially that older generation of people that are coming up to retirement,” he said, adding that workers could work remotely now and fly to Sydney for a meeting.

“Cost of living is such a big factor in today’s world … [people are] able to have a cheaper home and a smaller mortgage, it just makes life easier.”

He said home buyers could find an older style four-bedroom home for under $600,000, a newer house for $750,000, or an acre of land for $1 million.

West Tamworth’s steadier growth compares with nearby suburbs East Tamworth (up 54.7 per cent), North Tamworth (up 59.3 per cent), and South Tamworth (74 per cent). Spokes said the area includes disparate precincts, one with social housing where investors could find value for money but may be mindful of the risk, and a different precinct that is closer to the Tamworth CBD.

Ballarat Real Estate principal Ron Morrison said his area is drawing interest from Melbourne tree-changers and investors, drawn to schools such as Ballarat Clarendon College.

Many buyers are parents aged about 40, with a couple of young children, who can work from home a few days a week and commute by train to Melbourne the rest.

He thought Ballarat Central – where house prices are up just 7.4 per cent in five years – was an ideal suburb with easy access to schooling.

“The market was very buoyant over the post-COVID [period] and even towards the end of COVID, we saw the market have tremendous increases in value,” he said.

“They tapered off with the interest rates and other economic influences which slowed the market down.

Biggera Waters on the northern Gold Coast.Ray White Shore Group – Paradise Point

“Now we’re seeing people see that and seeing the value and returns on investment for buying in Ballarat.”

He praised Lake Wendouree. “It’s a beautiful city to live in,” he said. “Good clean country air and a slow pace of life, in that you haven’t got the traffic and the problems you have in Melbourne.”

On the northern Gold Coast, Biggera Waters had the most restrained growth in regional Queensland since 2020.

Wisdom Realty principal Wayne Oweis said the northern Gold Coast offers proximity to the ocean for a more affordable prices than in Sydney, and the area was past the tourist corridor.

He said there are shops, cafes and cinemas nearby, while investors are likely to find good returns.

“We do a lot with Melbourne buyers, more so than Sydney,” he said.

“[A recent buyer] found it fantastic value, she let me know that where she was in Geelong, she would have had to pay more.”